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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。
! A( s9 m+ U5 k+ P: M1 {2 g1 r9 G5 {9 @+ n
GM Overview B/ V' i- ~2 e! t
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs' G+ n4 s: u i5 i" a% ?
• Objectives4 m9 C, s4 m$ F! O/ ~
– What do we “WANT” to do?
/ X" p O, C/ z, }. G• External Analysis7 I' l2 B3 L3 s' v) u4 e
– What do we “NEED” to do?
' E( r1 o9 O/ K6 }– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade
8 X& R( B; H. `# g. {# E( {5 t• opportunities & threats
- W4 z M1 u8 ^, d– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
( R+ A0 D" K# p! L& ?) U& I" {• Internal Analysis+ ^! ]6 Q2 [+ ]' N$ r" S4 i# d
– What “CAN” we do?
7 y- [& p( o# O. y* X0 c3 _– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR- h, s8 p- W+ d1 P: T6 s4 x$ o
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses3 X Q" g3 d, O0 P
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES/ {1 j* V& _& O* F: {! C/ v9 p
+ _3 d8 u' l6 u& `' Q# i8 l( `" h6 g
• Alternative Evaluation+ l t! q" J8 C* c9 l
– What are the options?
' b4 V5 w4 }! |# Z– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
9 S1 F/ l% `+ @% j– How does this option “FIT”?7 {6 x' K2 d+ d Q
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
* n) M2 R9 m: l) L, X6 s4 f" E– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) 1 z/ P3 l& V' v2 ?
- b+ U$ V; x" i• Decision5 t# X# {1 _ a, I! s4 E8 F
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).+ D& |- e, d# w
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
1 j$ G7 m5 {, K; c" j; M# F% d) R1 q• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
& o, H V2 {( }0 w• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?
* Y- a% P5 R- B, F4 f4 Q• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?2 u: X! I- }2 C" X
• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)$ w" q, u3 m B. I) \
• Why NOT the other options?8 S# C _ J0 Q7 z G
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes3 a: C6 H6 s9 y$ m8 y" F
need to be made?
9 i: ]1 M/ l3 R5 |! z/ G
8 y7 G7 I7 p: b' n& i6 _• Action Plan
7 B. Q- T0 ~* t# z' z, a& T• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
# ~1 _" N& V: _5 {– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
1 e3 @9 H. r/ N* ldecision
$ C2 w. M. }/ ?2 r0 X3 F0 ]– details about timing
2 w8 p$ Z5 n0 x$ j8 j– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’: p6 v- A% h9 {" I& E% n C
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)+ J# t+ m! {, E% L
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
! o, L3 y* v5 I7 V) c# g7 u# H0 G# @& N+ Z5 V, v, w, a
Firm Valuation5 @; L+ W3 }7 w& Y# P3 T! o$ ^
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
) G; k3 Z1 ~0 G2 _• 3 methods of valuing a firm;! i/ Y( h& o/ Z A1 J( I) }, q$ y
– Net Book Value6 o9 ?, I/ t0 z6 U# ^5 g0 R
– Economic Appraisal
% w5 ]. Z) U0 \6 t" ^: o– Capitalization of Earnings5 ^$ k: Y+ R4 U5 a
• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
8 `+ I9 P4 ?3 y; Z- [, L6 rcompany is worth.2 H( T9 c, R2 O% L$ u
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
7 H6 S X( K: L8 }! k4 u) ]" K W9 W1 w' B: v3 s! E+ p
Net Book Value (NBV). t3 y0 F+ y% T5 g" [& W
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities+ ^! h1 g4 E6 a- a+ m. ~ P
• a.k.a.. the equity7 K+ q K4 G* O% I3 ^
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets5 b8 i, G/ t2 \+ _2 r# H6 w4 ^
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet$ f1 @" o8 n" {6 g# a/ S
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business. [: h- i" e: G
4 k/ B V# e/ L1 }
Economic Appraisal (EA)
$ s- L2 i- C, j. w3 h& m: o+ T– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
4 [) z3 q* [- e0 M- q– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
1 E2 x% w2 b i$ D0 `% J" ]! w+ T4 z1 `3 |– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets9 ~5 u' l! ^4 ~3 a: d9 ~4 v, F6 D) j6 Y
7 w7 R W/ M% f4 \) x Capitalization of Earnings (CE)% T2 {# R8 V9 Q/ R( P0 R- T
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S1 A' Y5 |- @ C; O
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.' W i& I* r& A. d
– NPAT * P/E ratio = value1 t9 q7 r. c, s, l& q% V: f
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
9 @1 g' g: d& ]! _• Assuming changes (projected statement)
3 W+ l$ i( F/ u$ `$ I7 E; S• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
6 J+ L( r; m, P" y– Select a reasonable P/E multiple4 j+ s. S( e0 ?& }5 e* A* y6 ?6 R
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)5 a) S2 O. d% E3 j0 @
. i0 v- {4 R0 x4 H; U0 o1 `" k• P/E Multiple1 P% w3 `7 g+ o6 }: S
– Rules of thumb;
5 I1 v' k# u7 m# {8 A- J1 s" {• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples ~! [$ I/ z" r9 |% O7 u
from 5 to 15.1 L& f* t p8 M9 `' o1 a
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.7 j4 ^) H6 G, a. @/ U' d
• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”
' ~+ h) Z" w' e/ q– growth increases a multiple7 ]/ G! x$ b' t3 J4 e, B5 f* P" M
– risk decreases a multiple
5 u1 A2 G7 V, k2 G9 v% e" G Y8 X) d2 w
Their Associated Ratios
0 c7 `( B! G4 Q" O• Profitability;
) H1 y @2 K8 H( `2 J6 t3 K& T– Business goal - to make $$
& @# l5 p, J( y& X( \, q" F– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales( E; D7 n( }0 W5 B8 D" j
• Stability;
' H5 F1 Y' p; {7 V– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)+ }( Z$ o8 h& {, z& O1 p! f: S1 @: ^
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
8 d: g0 P! x7 S* y9 B. ~3 E# {5 u$ W1 X7 J8 {# |$ u: X$ f1 z$ R# e; ~
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios) }- h8 H, _& ^
• Liquidity;
4 a% {% {* p3 n1 i– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations4 _) S8 ~% c% H: U
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm* S' r9 x$ E1 `/ h- w' h$ w
obligations)
$ T3 [/ }3 ?' L% g" R• Efficiency;
1 V0 E7 E. w6 ]+ h9 ^+ Z* a3 K3 k– Business goal - to efficiently use assets4 |, o# z4 r, Z. C% \5 Q
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments. f6 O+ K; n; P
F3 i' q* E2 W4 h# |. o
• Growth;
+ I2 }) M4 g& L3 ^8 Y |– Business goal - to increase in size3 V' C9 J' [# m V
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth
) c% T( y! U! e5 m, R7 m1 Z( V- D- Q) t8 v; ~
Interpreting the Ratios
, O0 U. [# o9 \9 v9 \• Profitability;& E# [7 @0 T C6 Y( l' V9 _
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)" {' L- \! d1 R
I/S items * 100 = %
1 m6 Q7 z$ B2 s8 Z( q3 U Sales
9 `/ R" a* |8 J* }" [5 ?1 Y• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales
6 z8 R8 v, P0 n, _' F7 b$ V– Return on Investment/Equity) r6 T5 z. W8 p, ]
Profit ATB4D = %
% l) e, _. p% x9 \1 d4 q+ s9 EAverage Equity1 c! w: t/ y w3 z. [
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2] `0 y4 D1 p X% X$ r" k
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
$ L+ P- @: Q9 c9 \8 S0 t a7 ?$ d! P! w6 |) ?
• Stability;
1 T7 ?& k3 {! |& D– Net Worth: Total Assets
+ {* z- i/ e& W) ?8 U6 R* ]8 VTotal Equity = %
7 f, G z3 q1 H* v0 r6 S0 I3 x, ^Total Assets
: }- @5 |; x1 p% b# d: i• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money' \' O( f: I3 e. ?: u9 k
– Debt to Assets
r9 C2 D) O8 W2 G0 k# z. [8 WTotal Debt = % , p5 D A0 c7 R0 D# L1 l& @
Total Assets- d& Q2 X2 S, L
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt4 v: b X$ v0 z$ z" y- K
– Interest Coverage# Z8 n) b3 Q1 R: S* s& a6 v
EBIT = # times
/ z2 R5 m' d( B" U) f; s) WInterest Expense8 A/ K+ ?" O. p: v
• tells us how many times we can pay interest
" J( {# n6 E0 P( J7 V: V% q8 D* U% A1 |) g6 @) ]
• Liquidity;- E. j2 W, `0 {
– Current Ratio& a! i& u% ?* }$ q
Current Assets = X:19 d, M' `2 d- V% g @
Current Liabilities
1 ^& r& }+ o h1 T• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
* ~" x1 S) S5 h$ O8 h o o9 xRULE OF THUMB: 2:1
' L. ` ]( n+ C5 e$ X6 v; u& h& k– Acid Test' }2 |' O8 L) n
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1/ n; j3 P; R! t4 V, R
Current Liabilities
$ s, w4 t: \8 U k6 O$ \( }3 ^6 m• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
) A) J5 [9 d& v" B0 Q3 HRULE OF THUMB: 1:1" v( j2 N0 e7 L8 X& o9 o3 F
( O% {: o& M2 {" q
– Working Capital% p' E( {! i# j
C.A - C.L = $X3 H% g) u9 m+ n6 U4 G. a
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
8 B# I0 r* x4 ]- f$ z: C4 F9 p
! E% y% @* j. L9 H Q/ {* R) ]Efficiency;
1 l! }; J2 r m( W2 @$ ]5 G' J– Age of Receivables8 K8 _8 e& P* m
Accounts Receivabl = # Days
. ^$ [1 k* A# W0 \ (Sales / 365)' ~3 Y* G: V( |" b
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
) @) |8 ?7 d4 O5 K4 }3 Y4 v c/ \/ C* ] b
– Age Of Payables9 D4 E% n3 T: d( e6 N% A. d: b
Accounts Payable = # Days& J, C1 r1 j1 [# q% Y' t! g6 j
(Purchases* / 365)
% y# k$ K# a$ s. s• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills) t0 P1 U0 f0 B0 M- J6 N8 Z/ f
# I; x B4 [6 f, n+ C! u; K– Age of Inventory
( T1 {1 V5 u1 Y4 | Inventory = # Days5 a4 t6 i9 a' ^% a$ B
(COGS / 365)' k$ w9 u5 s4 ?* W0 M
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse) ^6 k O) ]9 ^0 M- d3 v! J
" Z# u' n+ T: y7 b. s& b' }
• Growth;9 p+ c. b( B6 | |7 Y$ a. \
– Sales
% x( C( k! C5 S4 _; G. u– Net Income
0 n$ f8 H- Z0 E: S6 @– Total Assets
c. T I% o- `7 \' z– Equity
8 E$ e0 ?$ ~& T. O: I9 sYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %
% K4 ?' }( j# P& ~( i9 w Yr. 1
* N2 T' v+ C2 m& x- x; H/ [/ V4 L. w' H• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company). ?! w* o0 o5 W$ ?: @; m+ x8 e$ |+ d
8 `& G( l8 r' K& @% {- T) m% nUnderstanding Ratios
) p# Y. Z1 {' [. ~+ I/ {7 }: [! S• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”5 L2 t+ E: w' z8 E( r- h) |
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio1 \: Y1 c: w6 x7 d) ?/ d; }. C
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”
; r9 Y* N+ }' m8 T9 u/ I9 ^– Which number caused the change?) T% h9 b+ X3 s5 L
– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.# t9 K# j$ R7 R
– Will these trends continue?) @5 D( o2 n3 P$ x% j
– How does the company compare to the industry?0 z% U3 }; J" ` N
1 Z. p3 W" y+ O0 I1 O) n; w. [5 d) G
& q6 ?0 z4 H& w1 x" XClassifying Costs( Q: F$ w2 R1 V6 M
• Variable Costs
! j& j# U/ C3 u- R# }– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)6 \. C; q K2 P6 x5 ^
• Fixed Costs
. ^, b5 R9 y, Y" @1 R$ r9 I– cost that does not vary with volume |
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